Who will replace Jacob Zuma? The contenders for South Africa's next president

Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma
Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma has raised her hand to bid for leader of the African National Congress Credit: Themba Hadebe

South Africa's ruling party meets today to decide the successor to scandal-hit President Jacob Zuma, as it seeks to restore the legacy of Nelson Mandela’s great liberation movement.

Seven candidates have raised their hand to bid for leader of the African National Congress, and most likely president after elections in 2019.

But the choice is likely to come down to two: Cyril Ramaphosa, South Africa’s Deputy President and one of the nation’s wealthiest citizens, and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, the former chair of the African Union commission, and Mr Zuma’s ex-wife. 

Both frontrunners have promised to unite and revive the ANC, the 105-year-old party whose reputation has taken a beating under Mr Zuma’s scandal-ridden tenure. Chief among the damage has been Mr Zuma’s cozy relationship with the Guptas, a wealthy business family who have been accused of attempting to use their proximity to Mr Zuma and his son to influence government appointments.

Mr Ramaphosa, who is 65, leads the party faction calling for reform. He has blamed “state capture” – the attempt to wrest control of state resources for private profit – for the nation’s ailing economy, and has promised to weed out corruption and restore investor confidence.

Mrs Dlamini-Zuma, who is 68 and the mother of four of Mr Zuma's children, has pushed for a economic agenda that seeks to put more power in the hands of black South Africans who were disenfranchised under apartheid and remain excluded from the economy today.

Jacob Zuma (left) chats to Cyril Ramaphosa in June 2017
Jacob Zuma (left) chats to Cyril Ramaphosa in June 2017 Credit: SIPHIWE SIBEKO

But critics say her proximity to Mr Zuma could further compromise the party among voters in 2019, and and keep the country on its downward economic trajectory.

Though some warn it’s too early to call, Mr Ramaphosa has a slight edge going into the five-day congress after ANC branches across the country reported their nominations. 

Observers are expecting a tumultuous five days as the candidates and their supporters duke it out to fill the party’s top post amid a nationwide reckoning over corruption and the plundering of the state coffers. 

The allegations against Mr Zuma and the Gupta family are so far-reaching and brazen as be almost unbelievable. 

Former deputy finance minister, Mcebisi Jonas, last year told South Africa’s anti-corruption watchdog, that while visiting the compound in 2015, one of the Gupta brothers, Ajay, offered him R600 million (£33 million at current rates) to take over as finance minister and help the family secure more business with state enterprises.

Delegates of the ruling ANC elective conference arrive on Saturday
Delegates of the ruling ANC elective conference arrive on Saturday Credit: Themba Hadebe

Mr Jonas said he declined, and as he walked out of the meeting, Mr Gupta asked if he had a bag big enough with him to take R600,000 (£33,300) in cash. Mr Gupta has denied meeting with Mr Jonas or offering him the finance minister post, according to local media reports.

Atul Gupta, Ajay's brother, has separately said that the leaked emails were fake.  A raft of emails was also leaked to the South African media detailing a series of alleged acts of collusion between the Guptas and Mr Zuma and other government officials.

The Gupta family and Mr Zuma have denied any wrongdoing, but the scandal has deeply angered South Africans as they struggle with rising food prices and a national unemployment rate of nearly 30 percent. As the economy has sputtered, and the rand has been buffeted by Mr Zuma’s repeated cabinet reshuffles, voters have become increasingly disenchanted with the movement that once fought tirelessly to end South Africa’s white-minority rule.

Protestors outside the Gupta's Saxonwold residence call for President Zuma to step down in April
Protestors outside the Gupta's Saxonwold residence call for President Zuma to step down in April Credit:  Gallo Images

The allegations have also sharpened divisions within the ANC itself, pitching members who have privately and publicly criticized the president against Mr Zuma and his powerful allies.

“Dlamini-Zuma’s reputation as a puppet of her ex-husband would hurt the ANC in 2019, even though this perception is somewhat unfair,” says Ben Payton, Head of Africa Research for Verisk Maplecroft.

“She simply lacks the charisma to convince disillusioned voters to give the party another chance.”

For Mr Zuma, this week’s conference could potentially mark the end of the road as South Africa’s president, no matter who wins. ANC analysis of previous polls has shown Mr Zuma has already caused significant damage to the party’s vote share, says Mcebisi Ndletyana, a politics professor at University of Johannesburg.

For that reason, both frontrunners are likely to ask him to step down before 2019 to let another person campaign, he predicts.

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