Was this act justified or was it a provocation? Did it create ambiguity or confusion? Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan has raised many questions regarding both the United States' position before this visit and that of the People's Republic of China (PRC). Taiwan is ranked among the very first democracies in Asia and its model of democratization, especially since the end of the 1980s, has been a real success story after the years of the Kuomintang dictatorship. By visiting, the American House speaker is practicing what she preaches, the principles constantly proclaimed by the United States and its allies against the offensive of the Russian and Chinese autocracies in Ukraine and Hong Kong. Nancy Pelosi has also continually stressed that the United States' One China policy remains the same.
In this context, it would be wrong to take the Chinese position that this visit is an unacceptable provocation, to renounce other visits to Taiwan in the future so as not to risk offending Chinese leaders and to call into question a generally welcome trend that, in recent months, has seen high-level legislative delegations from the United States, Japan, Europe and France visit Taiwan. This renunciation would only encourage China to ramp up the pressure, not only against Taiwan but also against anything that contradicts Beijing's hegemonic claims in Asia, in the South China Sea or against Japan around the Senkaku Islands. As history has taught us, giving in to the demands of the most aggressive regimes poses a significant risk for the strategic balance of our planet. You cannot denounce the Russian invasion of Crimea, Donbas and finally Ukraine and then condemn any visit to Taiwan as an unacceptable provocation for a Chinese regime that has never controlled the island.
However, for Americans, the wavering of the White House and Joe Biden's unfortunate statements regarding the secretary of defense's opposition to this visit – like his haste in declaring that the US would not send any military personnel to Ukraine – may have encouraged the Chinese leaders to ramp up the pressure in response to a seemingly crumbling wall of defense. Similarly, they may be wondering about America's strategic ambiguity should they attack Taiwan when, after President Biden's statements on military support in the event of a Chinese attack, the administration (from the White House to the Pentagon via the State Department) firmly stressed that the United States does not support the island's independence.
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